Long-Term Thinking
There’s an organization called The Long Now Foundation that focuses on planting seeds for long-term thinking.
Their most well-known project is the 10,000 Year Clock, which is a mechanical clock conceived back in 1986, a full-scale version of which is being built on private land in Texas—at a cost of about $42 million—leading up to the final version which will be built in rural Nevada. The clock will tick exactly once per year, for ten-thousand years.
The difficulty of building something mechanical meant to last that long and to operate with the requisite precision is immense; hence the cost, and the amount of time it’s taken to get to where the project is now, and the time left before the publicly accessible final version in Nevada will be completed.
But the project is considered to be worthwhile because of what it represents, rather than the service it provides.
A physical, mechanical clock of immense accuracy isn’t terribly valuable in a world filled with atomic-clock calibrated smartphones and other devices, all of which provide the same service for free.
A complex device that requires the most clever and precise construction currently feasible, built in such a way that it will survive for thousands of years, though—that’s not something we’ve done before. Which is strange when you think about it.
I suspect many of us would like to assume that the human species will still be around in ten-thousands years; though we’ll hopefully be way better off, and almost certainly changed in some fundamental ways. I personally like to imagine that we will have moved beyond scarcity at that point, and will be spread around the galaxy, living well and doing interesting, beneficent things because we can.
But our planning, our building, the things we make and do, operate within the confines of a far more finite timeframe.
Long-lasting contemporary buildings are designed to last around 50-years, or 100-years at the extremes.
Our digital storage systems, where much of our modern artwork, research, and documentation lives, is predicated on hard drives that typically last somewhere between two and five years.
Even high-quality old-school methods of storing knowledge, like archival paper-based books, generally only last 40- to 100-years, on the high-end, unless dramatic preservation actions are taken; which isn’t something we can typically do, on scale.
None of this implies that we don’t care about the future, but we do seem to be prone to short-term thinking, even though humans seem to be unique amongst the lifeforms we know about, in that we’re able to plan ahead.
Some animals can instinctually stockpile acorns for the winter, or figure out how to move a box, stand on it, and grab out-of-reach bananas. But humans seem to be the only creatures on Earth cognitively capable of thinking about what might happen a year from now, or ten years, or ten-thousand years.
We have that capability, but we tend not to use it very often, because day-to-day concerns have priority, and moment-to-moment concerns even more so.
This makes sense: a focus on immediate threats and opportunities has obvious survival benefits, and it’s arguably more important to worry about the poisonous snake at your feet rather than fixating on the problems your grandchildren’s grandchildren’s grandchildren might face, someday, in some vague, far-off, not-immediately-applicable future.
But it’s important to maintain a sense of chronological place, I think, lest we find ourselves endlessly responding to disasters that arise seemingly out of nowhere, failing to benefit from the wisdom and knowledge gained from the last, close-match disaster our species survived.
The power of recording information and thinking long-term is that we can inoculate ourselves against some types of mistakes that we would otherwise make over and over again, due to our default tendencies and the patterns that emerge from humans engaging with each other on scale.
This is true, notably, not just with large-scale events across vast timeframes—like recalling how to defuse an impending international conflict, or how to stave off a potential pandemic—but also on a personal level, like remembering which politicians and businesses behaved in a socially positive, moral manner during a disease-related lock-down, and which grabbed for power at the public’s expense.
It’s unintuitive to take note of such things in a manner that benefits our future selves and societies for the same reason the building of a ten-thousand year clock of unintuitive: it’s not useful to us right now, and doesn’t help use solve the great many important problems we currently face.
So we take fail to take proper notes and make suitable plans, we don’t imagine possible distant futures, and we choose to focus, instead, on the endless procession of new, shocking, frightening snakes at our feet—forever blind to other, larger-scale concerns.
Maintaining a sense of self place within broader swathes of time, in addition to helping us think beyond what’s right in front of us, can also imbue in us a sort of overview effect, where that larger context provides us with resources from the past, incentivizes us to produce and share resources with the future, and helps us consider where things are going across eons, rather than limiting our time-horizon to today, the next major disaster, or the end of our personal time as living, thinking beings.
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A photo from Amsterdam, from when I visited several years ago.
Updates
This week on Brain Lenses, I published an essay about the Overview Effect (relevant!), and a podcast episode about Predictive Thinking.
This week’s episode of Let’s Know Things is about sports and the Olympics during the pandemic. And folks who’re supporting the show on Patreon will get a bonus episode about Swarms of Locusts, tomorrow.
Some community-related news:
After trying out a bunch of real-time options, and after discovering that many people are inundated with Zoom-like meetings and conversations all day, at the moment, I’ve decided to set up an old-school forum, to see if and how that might be useful as a gathering place/spot to share stories, links, ideas, and the like.
I’m working out some bugs, but I should have it up and running by next week :)
Community Stories
This section is an attempt to share some of the stories and experiences folks from around the world have shared with me over the past week.
Note: Everyone here has given their re-sharing permission, and the messages are lightly edited for typos and to remove personal information or messages to me.
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Hi Colin,
I've been a long time subscriber to your newsletter, and finally, could find enough time and headspace to reply to you.
First of all, a very happy 35th to you. Here's to a better and brighter future for you!
Moving forward, I simply wanted to share my thoughts regarding the last few days and how I've got the opportunity to meet myself, while distancing socially from most of the world. It's scary and unsettling, as it should be, but it's also liberating and meaningful, as it is meant to be. Knowing oneself takes courage, stillness and honest introspection, and I am sure a lot of us are already getting there (or plan to).
Personally, I've started meeting myself more often now, and started checking in with my thoughts and emotions everyday. As much as I look back on the past to see how I've fared, it's the future, however uncertain as it might be, which excites me the most.
Hoping we can all make some time for ourselves here, after all.
Bharat
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“It’s not enough to just be alive, we also need things to live for.”
Colin,
Above you is a quote from your own newsletter. One that I’ve found to be particularly profound, now more than ever. While since being on lockdown, I’ve searched within myself for meaning, as deeply as I ever have before. And I’ve taken away the following:
1) What it means to be alive:
I’ve never before been so frugal with my absolute essentials. I went three weeks between grocery trips as I awaited my stimulus check. This taught me to live on such means in a way I’d never considered before, but I am proud that I managed. It gave me a better sense of what life must’ve been like before the luxury of grocery stores and the like. Turns out we don’t need that often looked forward to dessert item.
2) What are the things we need to live for:
This obviously goes hand-in-hand with the first part, but I suppose I didn’t realize how much so before it. With my means of being alive taken care of, I found myself enjoying life now more than ever. Every day of sunshine that beams across my face is somehow magical. For the first time in my son’s life, I went on a hike with him without lifting my phone out of my pocket. No expectations of sharing it online or with close family members in a group chat. Just him and I, alive, while we explored ways in which to live for.
Thanks for all you do, Colin.
Cheers,
-JP
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Hi Colin.
Some weeks ago, your Interesting Links email had a link to a site that listed classic video games. I don't play video games but I took a look to see if Death Rally was listed and it was.
Twenty years ago, when my husband and I were living in our first apartment together, his younger brother visited a few times and the two of them would play that game and bond. Now the brother lives in Israel and over the years they've had very little contact. But once I shared the link with them, they have been playing together (but on opposite sides of the planet) and spending a lot of time reminiscing about all of their old video game moves and strategies.
It amazes me that they can't remember what they did earlier in the day but they can remember their victories and losses from two decades ago with perfect clarity.
We've been sheltering-in-place for nearly seven weeks and it’s been stressful and frustrating, but it’s been nice to hear hysterical laughing as my husband plays Death Rally with his brother. Thanks for sharing the link in the first place! You've cheered up our home.
My husband's other new obsession is http://gameaboutsquares.com, which is best played on the equivalent app. He asked me to share it with you in case you haven't come across it yet.
T
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If you'd like to share something about your pandemic project and/or personal experiences, send me an email.
These messages are a true pleasure to receive, and please feel free to reach out, even if you just want to say hi or share a fun link.
Interesting & Useful
Some neat things worth checking out:
Bored Solutions (things to do during lock-down)
Amazing Sculptures Made from Cardboard, Toothpicks, and Glue
I booked a little room on a Norwegian (ferry) ship for my birthday a few years back. This was the view out the window of my tiny boat-room.
Outro
Thanks for all the birthday well-wishes last week!
I didn’t do anything wild or crazy for the big 3-5, but I did have a nice meal and enjoyed some work, reading, playing guitar, and time with my parents. Not much different from a normal day, at the moment, but I enjoy my normal days, so that worked out fine.
Beyond that, I’ve been—like many people—reminding myself that this is more of a marathon than a sprint, which helps inform my pace and approach to setting goals and trying to accomplish them.
Also: my hair is getting quite long, and I’m trying to decide if it’s finally time to learn how to cut it myself.
How’s your week been? Any adjustments to the norm, new realizations, or strange happenings in your neck of the woods?
What’s work (or lack of work) been like? Have you learned any valuable lessons or skills that others might benefit from?
I respond to every email I receive, so feel free to drop me a line and tell me about whatever’s on your mind—including if you just need someone to talk/vent to. It’s a weird time for everyone, but it’s a lot more difficult for some than others, and if you’re not feeling in tip-top shape, that’s normal and okay.
You can also say hello via Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, or through e-ink-like squid-skin.
If you’re finding some value in what I’m doing here, consider supporting my work by becoming a patron, buying a book, or becoming a paid supporter of Let’s Know Things or Brain Lenses. You can also buy me a coffee if that’s more your thing.