Updating Priors
In the world of statistical inference, a “prior” refers to the beliefs we have about a particular value before we have all the data.
In practice, this means that if we’ve done all the calculations required to ship a batch of a particular product from warehouses to grocery stores, but then discover that the product actually weights three ounces more than we were originally told, it’s important that we go back through all of our calculations and change them based on this updated information.
It may be that some of our original plans will still stand, but it could also be the case that some of the boxes won’t safely hold the product as we assumed they would, or the trucks carrying pallets of the product won’t have enough fuel to get from Point A to Point B, because the original calculations, though only off by a little bit, can have repercussions that add up, over time and on scale.
In a more metaphorical sense, updating one’s priors generally means updating not just the behavior associated with a particular assumption when new information becomes available, but also reassessing the totality of all behaviors—past, present, and future—associated with that outdated understanding.
This means not just changing our minds about a specific political concept as we learn more about the world, but figuring out why our minds have been changed, what that means for the underlying beliefs from which we derived our earlier opinions, and then tracing those beliefs to see what other decisions we’ve made based on them—and then changing those, too, if possible.
This process is seldom a pleasant or simple one.
It can be difficult enough admitting to ourselves that we’ve perhaps been duped, been misinformed, or been wrong about something—even if only in the subjective and not absolute sense.
It’s awkward to think that we’ve maybe done things that clash with how we perceive ourselves to be, as people, and this can be true even if we acted in alignment with our beliefs at the time; the misalignment only existing in retrospect, through the lens of our new beliefs or knowledge.
Part of this discomfort stems from a sort of embarrassment: I can’t believe I didn’t arrive at this clearly better, more me-shaped belief, sooner. I can’t believe I behaved in that way, thought those things, made those decisions based on information that’s clearly wrong, ideas that are clearly false, and so on.
It’s also uncomfortable, though, because it implies that the same could happen again in the future. There’s a chance—a very decent chance—that we could someday look back at who we are today, and the decisions we’re making, the things we’re doing, and marvel at our ignorance, our lack of perspective and inability to see the truth that has become so evident to our future selves.
Updating a perceptual prior, in this context, means being willing to change not just how we think about one thing, but how we think about everything.
It means not just being willing to change our minds, but being willing to trace that change inward and outward, catalyzing a cascade of adjustments to our thinking, our behaviors, our habits and reflexes and biases, in an attempt to bring ourselves into better alignment with what we believe and know, now.
Keeping our priors malleable in this way is no guarantee that we’ll always get it right, nor that we’ll ever be able to say with absolute certainty that the beliefs we hold today are the beliefs we’ll hold for the rest of our lives. We’ll continue to feel foolish and embarrassed, at times, and that’s okay—that means we’re growing.
What such attention and effort grants us is the knowledge that, if we’re persistent and humble, our current set of understandings and beliefs can be woven throughout our lives—including our behaviors, not just our theories—which makes it more likely that we’ll, at any given moment, act in alignment with the most up-to-date version of who we are, rather than falling into outdated habits and patterns of thinking.
If you enjoyed this essay, and if you’re in a position to do so, consider supporting my work by buying me a coffee.
Courtenay, Canada.
Projects
This week on Brain Lenses I published an essay about Phenology (an utterly fascinating concept that should not be confused with “phrenology”) and a podcast episode about Moral Fatigue (ever feel exhausted trying to decide whether it’s ethical to buy from Amazon or go to the store during a pandemic? You’ve experienced moral fatigue).
Last week’s episode of Let’s Know Things was about Siberia and the wild (and disconcerting) weather conditions thereabouts, of late, and this week’s episode is about the end-of-lifing of the much loved, much maligned Adobe Flash (which in some ways defined the modern internet).
—
I’ll get more into the specifics below, but this past week was a wildly unproductive one, for me. Unproductive in the sense of making things, that is; somewhat productive in the sense that I made it through a tricky, physically painful period and came out the other side okay, and hopefully better in the long-term.
That said, I’m planning to spend the next week getting caught up on a few things, while also fleshing out a web-app that will allow folk to quickly make their own computer/smartphone background images by typing in their favorite quote, habit reminder, or some bit of information they’re trying to learn (which is how I’ve been using it).
I’m also planning an update for Authorcise, which’ll introduce some new functionality.
Community
I’m still interested in setting up a more permanent, external community space somewhere, but haven’t found the right platform/software fit for it, yet.
In the meantime, if you’d like to tell me a bit about how things are changing in your area and in your life—how things are going, what you’re looking forward to, how your work or home life, or your personal outlook and goals have changed (or stayed the same, despite everything)—I’ll share some of what you tell me in the next newsletter.
I feel like these sorts of stories bring us closer together, wherever we might be located in the world, and that’s what I’m aiming for: so thanks in advance if you decide to write :)
Interesting & Useful
Some neat things:
Medieval Fantasy City Generator(useful if you’re writing a novel or playing Dungeons & Dragons, but also just neat to play with)
Building Technology Heritage Library(an archive of older around-the-house how-to manuals, which are beautiful, but also potentially useful)
Zoom Earth(view satellite images of the Earth from essentially right now; at a certain zoom-level it uses older images, but the higher-up ones were taken within minutes of you looking at them)
The Girl from Ipanema is Weirder Than You Thought(interesting analysis of a well-known song, along with Bossa Nova in general)
Japanese Ghost Houses(I kind of want to buy a cheap, Japanese ghost house now)
I was fortunate to give a really fun talk to a wonderful group of people at the White Collar Factory in London, back in April of 2019. (Photo by Kit Naidoo)
Outro
My goodness, it has been a week.
After waking up a few days in a row with a sore neck and some pain in my jaw, I realized that I was probably clenching my jaw and/or grinding my teeth while I was sleeping. An older crown fell out, adding weight to that assumption, and after (fortunately) being able to get to the dentist to have it reinstalled, I began to experience sharp pain along my scalp and neck; which I initially thought might be connected to the dental work I’d just had done, but which now seems to be related to issues with my TMJ (temporomandibular joint: the main jaw muscle, basically).
I’ve had this kind of pain before, though very rarely, and always when I was mid-travel, and thus unable to easily get to a doctor to see what was up; so I’ve generally just muscled through and then forgotten about it.
This time, though, I’m not on the move, and the pain was worse and longer-lasting than ever before: sharp, nail-in-the-skull jolts of pain that hit me every 2-10 seconds, at irregular, unpredictable intervals, day and night.
I wasn’t able to do much of anything, my ability to focus was almost entirely shot. This lasted about four days, during which I couldn’t really sleep, eat, or do much of anything else.
That said, I’ve been doing some TMJ-strengthening exercises at home, which seems to be helping, and I’m going into a specialist later today—which will hopefully help me prevent this from happening again in the future.
A huge thanks to everyone who sent along words of encouragement and concern when I wasn’t able to do a normal newsletter last week! I appreciate that, but I’m truly okay: what I was dealing with sucked, but isn’t the end of the world, and probably isn’t long-term harmful. And while it isn’t ideal to be going into a doctor’s office right now, I’m very fortunate to be able to do so.
Annnnyyyway.
How’s your week been treating you? What’ve you been working on and/or thinking about? Facing any challenges of your own, at the moment?
I respond to every email I get, and as I mentioned above, if you’re keen to share an update with me and with folks from around the world, drop me a line and tell me what’s been up.
Also please feel free to reach out to just say hi, to ask for advice, to give advice, or to vent.
And if you’re feeling down, not doing okay right now, worried, stressed, uncomfortable, or otherwise not feeling at the top of your game: that’s okay. It’s super-normal, you’re not alone, what’s happening now is not forever, and you’re not incapable or a failure if you’re knocked off your feet from time to time.
Be safe out there, folks.
—
You can also reach out via Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, or biological telepathy.
If you’re finding some value in what I’m doing here, consider supporting my work by becoming a patron of my writing or my podcast, buying one of my books, or subscribing to Brain Lenses. You can also buy me a coffee if you’d like.
This is a strangely satisfying, chilled-out viewing experience.